Ukrainian export in the agricultural sector: the volumes are growing now and in the future

exportUkraine will continue to increase the volume of grain crops production and export. It is planned that by 2020 on the fields of our country up to 92 million tons will be collected, 62 million tons of which will be exported. This forecast belongs to Nikolai Gorbachev, president of the Ukrainian Grain Association. He declared this at the Grain & Maritime days conference in Odessa. The presented calculations by the experts of the association were based on the yield indicators, the volumes of grain production, and the size of the areas under sowing over the last 20 years.

«Based on the elementary statistical growth method, we made a forecast for the next 4 years. Producers will be able to achieve these indicators if the existing dynamics continue», commented Nikolai Gorbachev. He also added that the increase in yields also depends on the improvement of technology. In addition, the expert commented on the forecasts for the different types of cereals. According to him, the wheat will retain its leadership position, the amount of soy and maize will grow, the quantity of cultivated barley will decrease.

According to the results of January-March 2017, Ukrainian agrarian exports increased by 38.6%. In terms of money, this amounted to $ 4.56 billion – $ 1.23 billion more in comparing to the first three months of 2016. This information was published by Gosstat.

It should be noted that the increase in exports is observed for all groups of agricultural goods. In particular, the basis for growth was a large supply of sunflower oil (USD 315.7 million), soybeans (225.9 million), maize (140.4 million), sugar (11.63 million), wheat (110.6 million) Million), barley (65.8 million).

The key trade partners of Ukraine in the agricultural sector are Asian countries – they purchase 44.4% of the total export volume. Total share of the European Union countries is 28.6%, while the Africa region – 18%. In particular, only in April 2017 Ukraine exported 1.2 million tons of wheat. Since the new season, Ukrainian wheat exports have increased by 11% (compared with the period of the previous marketing year).

Egypt is the main market for Ukrainian wheat after the falling demand in India. In April, the Egyptian market took 553 thousand tons of Ukrainian wheat. This is 46% of all exports for the specified period.

Also, a noticeable increase in wheat supplies from Ukraine is observed in the Turkish market. Having limited import of wheat from Russia, Turkey purchased 113 thousand tons of wheat from Ukraine. In general, from the beginning of the 2016/2017 marketing year, 140 thousand tons of wheat were exported from the Ukrainian ports to the Turkish ports – 25% more comparing to the last season as a whole.